The chance that the European Union and Great Britain will succeed in properly arranging Brexit is only 30-40 percent.
This probability calculation comes from senior British officials in Downing Street, The Times and The Spectator report. Negotiations for an agreement on Brexit have virtually stalled.
One of the main points of contention seems to be the UK’s plans for state aid to businesses. The British government, for example, maintains that it wants to pump a lot of money into the technology sector, among other things.
Another tricky issue is fishing. In British waters, a lot is fished by fishermen from other countries, and this depends mainly on what they catch there.
The government in London wants to stipulate in a deal with Brussels that the share of British fishing boats in the total catch will be doubled from a quarter now to half of the total proceeds. The EU prefers to stick to the existing situation.
About 35 percent of the value of the catch of Dutch fishermen comes from British waters. Some fish such as herring and mackerel are mostly caught in British waters.
The United Kingdom has already left the EU, but according to plans, everything will remain the same until the end of this year if there is an agreement on Brexit.
Without agreements on trade relations, there will be a ‘no-deal Brexit’ with potentially severe consequences for the economies of the countries concerned.